I'm more than willing to acknowledge that tracking polls have flaws and may not be accurate. For example, tracking polls use historical election data to simulate the electorate, but this election is anything but similar to previous elections.

On Election Day, we may find the polling data blown out of the water by record voter turnout, especially in certain age groups and demographics.

Prior to this final stage of the election, whoever was ahead in polls wasn't a good indicator of who was likely to win. Conventions, VP announcements, and all other kinds of political hoopla create bounces and fluctuations in poll numbers.

But as we get into the home stretch, the poll numbers should steady out and should be considered a better indicator of what's going to happen come Nov. 4.

But regardless of the accuracy of tracking polls as an absolute mark, polls are able to accurately track trends and changes. And one change that is apparent by recent polling data is the huge tide of support for Obama going into the final few weeks before the election.

Current state of the election. Source: RealClearPolitics

Election map if all toss-up states went for Obama

Election map if all toss-up states went for McCain

Recent polling has shown Obama ahead in every battleground state except Indiana, including significant leads in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in 44 years.

States like North Carolina and Missouri, two traditionally safely Republican states, favor Obama in polls. A poll released yesterday showed Obama ahead of McCain in West Virginia by eight points, a state where he won only a quarter of the primary vote.

According to RealClearPolitics, a site that aggregates election polls and news, Obama has 277 "safe" or "leaning" electoral delegates, seven more than the needed amount to win the highest office in the land.

For McCain to win, he would have to retain all of the other states up for grabs — Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virgina, North Carolina, and Florida — as well pick up one other battleground state now considered to be leaning toward Obama: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, or Washington.

Is winning the election still possible for McCain? Of course it is, but only in a very limited number of ways. Election fraud, October surprises, and negative campaigning are three ways in which McCain could win.

But recent voting trends show that voters are being turned off by negative campaigning, especially in light of the serious economic turmoil we're facing.

Saying our election system is impervious to election fraud is naive. But if polling trends hold steady, election fraud would have to be coordinated across a number of states utilizing a number of different polling methods.

As far as October surprises go, it's hard to imagine an October surprise more important than what's going on with the economy right now.

If all of the "toss-up" states went for Obama, he has a ceiling of 380 electoral delegates, winning 30 states plus the District of Columbia. A best-case scenario for McCain in terms of current toss-up states yields him 261 electoral delegates in 28 states.

McCain would have to capture one or more of the states that currently leans toward Obama such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, or New Mexico for a win.

Ignoring the possibility of leaning states like Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Georgia switching allegiance, Obama has the possibility of a land-slide victory, winning more than 70 percent of the electoral delegate count.

FiveThirtyEight, an election simulation and prediction Web site, shows that if the election were to be held today, Obama would win more than 90 percent of the simulated outcomes based on aggregated poll numbers adjusted for weight and trends.

It is certain the poll numbers will continue to fluctuate in these final 23 days, but most experts agree that an Obama win is likely come election day.